Post by : Badri Ariffin

The longest-ever U.S. government shutdown has left the agricultural world in uncharted territory. With critical crop data unavailable, analysts and traders are grappling with unprecedented uncertainty as the country’s two most valuable crops—corn and soybeans—reach the finish line of harvest.

Farmers, buyers, and market watchers have been forced to rely on fragmented information: private forecasts, local cash prices, media reports, and even social media glimpses of overflowing grain bins. None of these provide the clear, comprehensive picture that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report usually delivers.

Analysts’ pre-report estimates for corn vary dramatically, from 181.7 to 186.0 bushels per acre, all below USDA’s September projection of 186.7. Soybean estimates range from 187 million to 494 million bushels—a spread nearly three times wider than typical. To put this in perspective, the difference in corn estimates exceeds Michigan’s entire 2024 crop, while soybean estimates vary by roughly half of Indiana’s production.

Adding to the uncertainty, the USDA’s regular crop export sales data has been suspended. This comes at a crucial moment, as trade negotiations with China—the top buyer of U.S. soybeans—remain unresolved. Reports suggest China may have booked supplies from South America, leaving U.S. exports hanging in limbo and markets on edge.

Harvest observations present a mixed picture. Some areas report robust yields with ample storage, while others signal shortages that have driven up cash prices. Late-season dryness and crop disease further complicate the picture, with no official nationwide data to confirm the impact.

Despite the shutdown, USDA staff have reportedly continued collecting field samples to maintain statistical integrity for upcoming forecasts. Still, the absence of publicly released data has left the market navigating by guesses, rumors, and anecdotal reports.

As the week closes, all eyes are on the USDA’s upcoming report, which promises to clarify the true size of the U.S. corn and soybean harvest. Until then, traders and farmers alike face a rare moment of uncertainty in the heart of America’s agricultural season.

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