Post by : Maya Rahman

In France, health authorities are sounding alarms over the current bird flu outbreak, warning it might escalate into a pandemic more serious than COVID-19 if the virus undergoes mutations that facilitate human-to-human transmission. Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, the medical director at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, raised these concerns.

The H5 bird flu virus, known as highly pathogenic avian influenza, has been infecting wild birds, poultry, and certain mammals for years, leading to the culling of millions and impacting food supplies globally, consequently driving up prices for eggs and poultry. Although human infections are rare, experts urge vigilance.

Rameix-Welti pointed out that the primary risk lies in the virus adapting to mammals and subsequently humans. If it were to gain the ability to transmit between humans, it could precipitate a severe global health crisis. She emphasized that such a mutation would classify it as a pandemic virus, possibly more severe than the COVID-19 experience.

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Institut Pasteur was pivotal, being among the first European labs to develop efficient testing methods, enabling fast virus detection worldwide.

While humans possess some immunity to common flu strains like H1 and H3, there are no antibodies against the H5 strain currently affecting birds and certain mammals. This situation mirrors the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak when there was no natural immunity. Rameix-Welti cautioned that flu viruses are hazardous not just for vulnerable populations but can also severely affect healthy individuals and children, raising alarms about a mutated bird flu virus causing substantial illness.

Human cases of various H5 bird flu strains have surfaced, including the circulating H5N1 variant in the U.S. Poultry and dairy cows, leading to infections primarily among those in close contact with infected animals. A recent case involving the H5N5 strain in Washington marked the first human infection of this type, with the patient, who had prior health issues, passing away last week.

According to WHO data, nearly 1,000 human bird flu cases have been reported globally from 2003 to 2025, primarily in Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with a mortality rate of about 48%, underscoring the virus's potential danger.

Despite these alarming statistics, experts maintain that the immediate danger of a human pandemic is still low. Gregorio Torres from the World Organisation for Animal Health cautioned against panic, advising that while a pandemic is possible, the chances remain minimal. He reassured, "You can live your life, enjoy nature, and eat poultry products," stressing the importance of continued vigilance and preparedness.

Rameix-Welti also highlighted that if the virus mutates to spread among humans, the world's current state is more prepared than during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccines are ready, and there are effective antiviral treatments that could mitigate a possible outbreak.

Experts conclude that while the issue is serious, it does not warrant alarm. Ongoing surveillance, early detection measures, and bolstered response strategies should remain priority efforts for governments and healthcare entities. Topics such as virus mutation, public health safety, and global avian influenza monitoring need continuous focus.

For now, individuals can carry on with their normal activities; however, scientists underline the necessity for close monitoring and global collaboration to avert a future health crisis.

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