Post by : Badri Ariffin

India's ambition of achieving a $5 trillion economy has encountered a significant challenge. As highlighted in the latest IMF consultation report published on November 26, the timeline for reaching this goal is now pushed to FY29, a full year beyond previous estimates.

This adjustment stems from reduced nominal growth projections and a depreciating rupee. The IMF now anticipates India's GDP will stand at $4.96 trillion in FY28, a downward revision from the earlier prediction of $5.15 trillion. Notably, just two years ago in 2023, a grander forecast of $5.96 trillion was posited.

Impact of Currency Decline

The declining rupee is influencing the revised GDP forecast measured in dollars. Consequently, the IMF has altered its FY25 exchange rate expectation from Rs 82.5 to Rs 84.6 per dollar. Projections for FY26 and FY27 forecast further depreciation, estimating the rupee will reach Rs 87 and Rs 87.7, respectively. On November 21, the currency hit a record low of Rs 89.49 per dollar.

These developments have led the IMF to redefine India's exchange-rate framework from “stabilized” to “crawl-like,” indicating a higher allowance for gradual depreciation.

Declining Nominal Growth Rates

Nominal GDP growth predictions have also been adjusted. The IMF projects an 8.5% growth rate for FY26, down from the previously expected 11% in FY24. In dollar terms, this equates to expected growth rates of 5.5% for FY26 and 9.2% for FY27, influenced by both slower domestic development and fluctuations in exchange rates.

Nonetheless, India continues to be recognized as one of the fastest-growing major economies worldwide. Robust domestic demand, advancement in infrastructure, and ongoing reforms remain pivotal in contributing to its growth potential. The IMF emphasizes that finalized trade agreements and continuous reform efforts could enhance India’s economic trajectory further.

While India challenges certain assumptions—especially regarding the sustainability of U.S. tariffs on its exports—the overall outlook remains optimistic. Analysts assert that meticulous macroeconomic governance, currency stabilization, and sustained policy reforms are crucial for India to regain its swift progress toward achieving the $5 trillion goal.

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