Post by : Rameen Ariff

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif issued a blunt warning to the Taliban-led authorities just hours before Afghan-Pakistan talks convened in Istanbul, a statement that has clouded diplomatic efforts to contain recent border violence and drone incidents.

Speaking on television, Asif said, “War will happen,” when pressed about whether military force might be used against the Taliban. He accused Kabul of providing safe haven to militants and of failing to prevent cross-border attacks. Afghanistan answered by denouncing Pakistan’s drone strikes on civilians and questioning Islamabad’s silence about alleged ISIS training sites on Afghan soil.

The negotiations, brokered by Turkiye and Qatar, seek to consolidate a fragile ceasefire agreed in Doha last month. The prior Istanbul session, which wrapped up on October 30, produced a joint pledge from both parties to extend the truce and to create a verification and monitoring mechanism to stabilise the frontier.

The Afghan team is led by Intelligence Chief Abdul Haq Wasiq and includes senior Taliban figures such as Anas Haqqani and acting Qatar envoy Suhail Shaheen. Pakistan’s delegation is fronted by National Security Adviser and ISI Chief Lieutenant General Muhammad Asim, underlining Islamabad’s emphasis on security rather than political reconciliation.

Persistent border clashes and disruptions to trade remain central concerns. More than 8,000 Afghan containers are reportedly held up inside Pakistan, with some 4,000 additional consignments awaiting clearance — a backlog inflicting economic pain on both sides. Analysts warn that more heated rhetoric could imperil the fragile ceasefire and wider regional stability.

In the midst of rising tensions, Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry dismissed assertions by Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar that Islamabad and Kabul have been in frequent contact, calling the claims “false” and at odds with diplomatic norms. Dar, for his part, criticised past ISI actions during the Taliban’s return and linked them to a rise in extremist hostility toward Pakistan.

Mediators from Turkiye and Qatar are expected to push both delegations to accept accountability steps and to operationalise a joint verification mechanism to enforce the ceasefire. Yet with Asif’s warning and Kabul’s rebuttals, the Istanbul talks have opened under severe strain, exposing the precarious nature of peace in the region.

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