Post by : Badri Ariffin

Recent analyses reveal that U.S. tariff revenues are significantly underperforming, generating about $100 billion less than anticipated, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Earlier forecasts from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested tariffs might exceed half a trillion, possibly nearing one trillion dollars; however, current figures indicate that customs and excise taxes could only total around $400 billion annually.

This deficit is primarily attributed to a much lower-than-expected average effective tariff rate (AETR). Current estimates show an AETR of only 12%, compared to the nearly 20% that was forecasted earlier in the spring. Even the Congressional Budget Office has reduced its AETR forecast to 16.5% from 20.5% last month. Economists highlight three main factors contributing to this revenue shortfall.

1. Significant Decline in Imports from China and Trade Diversion

U.S. imports from China have fallen by 30%, leading China’s share of total imports to decline from 13% to just 9% in 2024. Conversely, imports from Vietnam have increased from 4% to 6%, driven largely by items like game consoles, TVs, and clothing—which carry a 20% tariff—much lower than the nearly 50% rate applied to Chinese goods, thus exacerbating the revenue deficit.

2. Increased Compliance with USMCA

Trade from Canada and Mexico has surged under the USMCA agreement, surpassing initial expectations. The White House had estimated that 38% of Canadian and 50% of Mexican imports would be tariff-free, but actual AETRs in August were noted at merely 5% for each nation. Businesses are successfully demonstrating product origin to access tariff exemptions, thus skewing revenue expectations.

3. Rise in Tariff-Exempt AI and Technology Imports

The arrival of advanced computing and AI products, categorized as “automatic data processing machines,” has jumped to 9% of total imports from 4% last year. This increase in tariff-free high-tech goods masks a 10% decrease in other imports, consequently lowering the overall effective tariff rate.

Experts believe this trend could be temporary as firms may be postponing imports to manage inventory levels in anticipation of potential changes in regulations. If tariffs endure, the volume of imports subject to tariffs could rebound next year, leading to some revenue increase—though still likely below initial predictions.

Consequences for Consumers and the Economy

While tariff revenues fall short, U.S. consumers are facing the repercussions. Tariffs function like a hidden tax on imports, with estimates indicating they might cost shoppers approximately $29 billion this holiday season. Elevated tariffs may further suppress economic growth, potentially adding 0.8 percentage points to core inflation by 2026, which could negate a full year’s worth of disinflation progress.

The interplay between lower revenue and rising consumer costs underscores the complex nature of U.S. tariff policies.

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