Post by : Anis Farhan

Photo: AFP

Islamabad Pursues Long-Range Nuclear Strike Capability

Washington — U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Pakistan is discreetly developing a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with the potential to strike targets within the United States, sources confirmed this week.

If operationalized, the missile would place Pakistan among a restricted group of nations possessing ICBMs, including the U.S., Russia, China, France, the U.K., India, and North Korea. The development signals a dramatic expansion of Pakistan's missile reach, which has until now been limited to short- and medium-range systems, such as the Shaheen-II and Shaheen-III.

Strategic Shift Tied to Regional Tensions

According to defense analysts, the move is driven by Islamabad’s desire to deter not only India but also any perceived threats from the United States. The development reportedly accelerated after India’s “Operation Sindoor” in May, a military campaign that heightened cross-border tensions.

An ICBM—defined as having a range of more than 5,500 kilometers—would dramatically alter Pakistan's strategic calculus by providing second-strike capability well beyond South Asia.

U.S. Response: Pakistan to Be Treated as a Nuclear Adversary

Senior U.S. officials, speaking on background, warned that the emergence of a Pakistani ICBM would force Washington to treat Islamabad as a global nuclear adversary. "This would mark the first time the U.S. considers a new nuclear-armed threat with direct ICBM reach in decades," one source said.

Such a shift could prompt major changes in U.S. missile defense posture, arms control strategy, and diplomatic priorities. Experts say it may also undermine existing global non-proliferation frameworks.

FATF Flags Illicit Procurement

In parallel, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has flagged Pakistan for allegedly acquiring missile components from China through illicit procurement channels. The reported violations have intensified U.S. concerns over potential proliferation and technology leakage.

These findings have led to new sanctions targeting Pakistani defense entities, including the National Development Complex (NDC) and associated suppliers involved in long-range weapons development.

Diplomatic Overtures Rejected

Washington has reportedly attempted to engage Islamabad with a series of “confidence-building measures” aimed at de-escalating the situation. These include offers of telemetry-sharing on missile tests and cooperative verification mechanisms. However, Pakistani officials are said to have rejected such proposals.

Instead, Pakistan has defended its program as a sovereign necessity aimed at securing deterrence against regional and external threats. Officials in Islamabad have yet to comment directly on the ICBM development claims.

Regional Stability at Risk

Defense experts warn that Pakistan’s entry into the ICBM club could destabilize South Asia’s fragile nuclear balance. “This could unravel three decades of nuclear deterrence stability in the region,” said one senior security analyst.

India, which already possesses long-range Agni-V ICBMs, is expected to monitor the situation closely. So far, New Delhi has not issued an official response.