Post by : Raman

Photo : AFP

Thailand’s political scene has entered a new period of uncertainty as tycoon-turned-politician Anutin Charnvirakul appears to be leading the race to become the country’s next prime minister. This development comes after days of tense negotiations between major political parties following the sudden removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office last week.

Anutin is the leader of the conservative Bhumjaithai party and is widely recognized for pushing the legalization of medical cannabis in Thailand. He has now secured support from lawmakers of the main opposition, the People’s party, who are willing to back him in parliament as long as he agrees to certain conditions. These conditions include dissolving parliament within four months and committing to constitutional changes, possibly through a national referendum, which the People’s party hopes will make Thailand’s political system more democratic. Importantly, the People’s party will not be part of his government.

On Wednesday, Anutin expressed his willingness to accept the People’s party conditions, stating that he believes he has enough parliamentary support to become prime minister.

Political Chaos After Shinawatra’s Removal

Thailand’s politics was thrown into turmoil last week when the constitutional court removed Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her position as prime minister. The court ruled that she violated ethical rules during her handling of a border dispute with Cambodia. Paetongtarn, daughter of former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, had been in office for only one year.

The constitutional court in Thailand has a long history of intervening in politics, often dissolving popular parties and banning leaders, making it a powerful force in shaping the country’s leadership.

Separately, on Wednesday, Pheu Thai, the party of the embattled Shinawatras, submitted a request to the king to dissolve parliament, paving the way for fresh elections. However, it remains unclear whether lawmakers in the current caretaker government have the authority to approve this request or how soon it could happen.

The Role of the People’s Party

The People’s party has emerged as the kingmaker in the current political negotiations. Both Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai had raced to secure its support, knowing its backing could determine which party can form a government.

With 143 seats, the People’s party holds the largest number of seats in parliament, giving it significant influence over the formation of the next government. However, it cannot lead a government itself because its prime ministerial candidate was banned from politics by a court ruling last year. Additionally, the court had dissolved the party’s previous form, known as Move Forward, over its promise to reform Thailand’s strict lese majesty law, under which criticism of the monarchy can lead to up to 15 years in prison.

Despite its power, the People’s party has little support for either Bhumjaithai, a conservative party, or Pheu Thai, which it sees as blocking its political ambitions in the past. The party’s leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, said that both parties have historically failed to act in the interest of the people and the country. He emphasized that the People’s party is prioritizing a new election and constitutional changes over personal or party popularity.

He said: “I think everyone can see that this decision is not for our own popularity but it’s in the interest of finding a solution for the country.”

Anutin’s Background and Political Career

Anutin Charnvirakul is a royalist conservative with a background in business. His family is a major shareholder in one of Thailand’s largest construction companies, which gives him strong financial influence.

Politically, Anutin served as Minister of Public Health during the COVID-19 pandemic, overseeing major health programs and responses. Until recently, his party was in a coalition government with Pheu Thai, but it withdrew following the border dispute crisis with Cambodia, which eventually led to Paetongtarn’s removal.

Implications for Thaksin Shinawatra

The recent developments could be a major blow to Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been a dominant figure in Thai politics for decades. Once a powerful political force with significant influence, his family’s popularity is now declining. Paetongtarn’s removal from office represents a setback to the Shinawatra legacy, and Anutin’s rise could mark a shift in Thailand’s political landscape.

Thailand’s politics have long been characterized by frequent interventions from the courts, coalition governments, and complex negotiations between parties. Anutin’s potential premiership reflects the ongoing challenges of governing in a system where constitutional rules, party alliances, and court decisions intersect in unpredictable ways.

Next Steps: Election or Parliamentary Vote

A vote for a new prime minister could take place in parliament as soon as Friday, depending on the negotiations and final agreements between the parties. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai’s request to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections adds another layer of uncertainty.

The coming days will be critical in determining whether Anutin can form a stable interim government, how quickly parliament may be dissolved, and whether constitutional changes or reforms will move forward. The People’s party’s backing will be essential in all these decisions, highlighting its role as a decisive force in Thailand’s politics.

Thailand is now witnessing one of its most complex political periods in recent history. Anutin Charnvirakul, a business tycoon and conservative politician, appears poised to take the lead as the next prime minister, backed by the strategic support of the People’s party. Meanwhile, the legacy of the Shinawatras, long central to Thai politics, faces uncertainty after the removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

The decisions made in the coming days—including parliamentary votes, potential dissolution, and constitutional reforms—will shape the country’s political future. With court interventions, shifting alliances, and ongoing negotiations, Thailand’s path toward a stable government and a more democratic system remains uncertain.

One thing is clear: the rise of Anutin and the influence of the People’s party demonstrate the complexity and unpredictability of Thai politics, where power, negotiation, and legal rulings intersect to determine the leadership of the nation.