Post by : Saif Rahman

As Guinea nears a pivotal electoral moment, military leader Mamady Doumbouya is on the path to transform his role from coup leader to an elected president. The upcoming presidential election on December 28 is set to reinforce his authority, more than four years after his military takeover.

Doumbouya seized power in September 2021 after dethroning then-president Alpha Condé, spurred by widespread unrest over Condé's bid for a third term. Initially embraced by many Guineans as a beacon of hope for stability and accountability, Doumbouya, a former special forces officer, had pledged to facilitate a shift to civilian governance and indicated he would forgo future electoral ambitions.

That commitment has since been revoked. A constitution amendment, ratified in a September referendum, has lifted previous bans on military officials running for office. Given that key opposition figures have been marginalized, Doumbouya is anticipated to secure victory, raising alarm among critics about the electoral integrity.

Proponents highlight economic reforms and investments in the country’s extensive mining sector as indicators of positive advancement during his administration. Guinea is home to the largest bauxite reserves globally and boasts some of the richest, untapped iron ore resources at Simandou. A significant iron ore project launched recently, alongside moves to amplify state control over mining resources to enhance national finances, has fostered foreign investments, maintaining stability in contrast to neighboring nations grappling with coups and unrest.

Yet, detractors contend that political freedoms have dwindled. Civil society organizations have accused the government of curtailing protests, restricting press freedom, and shutting down opposition avenues. Numerous notable opposition leaders are either in self-imposed exile or disqualified from running. Former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo resides abroad amid a corruption case, while ex-president Alpha Condé faces disqualification due to a new age limit.

Doumbouya’s military background has significantly influenced his governance approach. Hailing from eastern Guinea as an ethnic Malinke, he has trained and served in multiple countries, including a stint with the French Foreign Legion. Supporters assert that his military discipline fosters order and a focused administrative approach. Conversely, critics argue it has resulted in tighter controls and diminished democratic oversight.

International stakeholders are confronted with a complex dilemma. Publicly denouncing Guinea's political course could drive the country towards alliances with non-Western powers, including China. Conversely, passively accepting the election results might embolden other military leaders in the region to pursue similar power grabs.

As Guineans ready themselves to cast ballots, the impending election signifies more than a mere title change for Doumbouya. It will profoundly influence the nation's trajectory and examine whether political stability and economic progress can genuinely harmonize with democratic principles. For many, the pressing inquiry remains whether this political transition will benefit the populace or merely entrench existing power among current leaders.

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