Post by : Badri Ariffin

Republika Srpska, Bosnia — In the wake of Milorad Dodik’s ousting, his ally Sinisa Karan is ahead in the presidential election for Bosnia’s Serb-controlled region, according to preliminary data released on Sunday. With 92% of ballots tallied, Karan has approximately 50% of the vote, closely followed by his opponent, Branko Blanusa, at 47%.

This snap election follows Dodik’s removal in August after he was convicted for defying the international High Representative's orders, leading to a one-year prison sentence alongside a six-year ban from serving in public office. He opted to pay a fine instead of facing incarceration, temporarily stepping down while remaining at the helm of the Party of Independent Social Democrats.

Campaign and Key Messages

Dodik actively supported Karan's candidacy, portraying the election as a continuation of his legacy. “I will stand by you in our political endeavors. Karan’s victory is my victory too,” he shared with his followers. Karan echoed this promise of continuity: “We will carry on where we left off.”

Blanusa acknowledged the relatively fair election climate but expressed concerns regarding media favoritism towards Karan. “If it weren't for manipulations, I would have won tonight,” he stated.

Context: Political Landscape of Republika Srpska and Bosnia

Republika Srpska, governed by Bosnian Serbs, dominates about half of Bosnia, while the other half is jointly administered by Bosniaks and Croats. These two entities are connected by a central authority established via the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, which concluded a war causing over 100,000 fatalities and widespread displacement.

The struggle for independence from Yugoslavia sparked violent tensions, with Bosnian Serbs aiming to carve their territory that could potentially align with Serbia. Dodik has been a persistent advocate for Republika Srpska’s independence, leading to sanctions from the U.S. and the U.K., previously lifted last month following his resignation.

Implications of the Election

The results from Sunday’s vote reflect Dodik's enduring influence and prevailing policies within Republika Srpska. Analysts indicate that this election accentuates the persistent political friction between the entity and the national government, sustaining tensions in this ethnically divided nation.

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