Post by : Saif Rahman

The Syrian government has reached a pivotal point, giving Kurdish-led forces a tight four-day deadline to agree on integration into the state. This ultimatum coincides with the United States' indication that its long-standing backing for these forces is diminishing. Collectively, these events represent a significant transformation in the Syrian conflict landscape since the downfall of former President Bashar al-Assad over a year ago.

On Tuesday, the Syrian administration declared a ceasefire with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which will remain in effect for four days. During this period, the SDF is expected to finalize a plan that would enable their incorporation into Syria’s national framework. The government has warned that, should no agreement be reached, state forces may encroach into SDF-controlled territories in the northeast.

The SDF, predominantly composed of Kurdish fighters, has been a vital ally for the US in their battle against the Islamic State group. Previously, with American air support, the SDF managed to seize control of vast regions in northeastern Syria. However, recent advancements by Syrian government troops have compelled the SDF to retreat to areas with substantial Kurdish populations.

A senior US envoy noted that the rationale for supporting the SDF has largely concluded. He described the offering of integration into the Syrian state as a promising opportunity for the Kurds to secure civic rights, cultural safeguards, and political involvement. The envoy also emphasized there is no intention for the US to maintain a long-term presence in Syria.

President Donald Trump expressed support for Syria's newfound leadership, lauding President Ahmed al-Sharaa's initiatives. Trump mentioned discussions regarding detention facilities in northeastern Syria for captured Islamic State militants, reaffirming that while US involvement is lessening, efforts to protect the Kurdish community will continue.

The Syrian government stated that their ceasefire would commence on Tuesday evening. Within this timeframe, the SDF is expected to propose a plan for integration specifically in Hasakah province, including nominating a candidate for a significant role in the defense ministry in Damascus. The government assured that it would refrain from entering Hasakah or Qamishli cities during the ceasefire.

Northeastern Syria holds strategic importance, home to diverse Kurdish and Arab populations, and borders both Turkey and Iraq. Turkey has persistently opposed the primary Kurdish faction within the SDF, associating it with a terrorist organization within its borders, which has turned the region into a focal point of tension among Syria and its neighboring countries.

Another pressing issue revolves around the thousands of Islamic State-affiliated individuals detained in prisons managed by the SDF. Recent SDF withdrawals have led to numerous escapes, though many detainees have since been recaptured by Syrian forces. The Syrian government has stated its readiness to assume control over these facilities.

Tensions between the SDF and the Syrian government surged earlier in the month as discussions regarding the future of SDF fighters and territorial control stalled. While the SDF has agreed to vacate certain Arab-majority areas, it retains control over critical mixed-population cities.

This juncture presents Kurdish forces with a challenging dilemma. Agreeing to integration may result in the loss of military autonomy but could secure legal and political standing within Syria. Conversely, rejecting the proposal risks escalating conflict, particularly as US support wanes.

As the four-day deadline looms, the decisions made by both parties will significantly influence the trajectory of northeastern Syria, impacting not just the local Kurdish and Arab communities, but also the broader regional stability and the campaign against extremist factions.

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