Post by : Saif Rahman

The conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has entered a precarious phase as the M23 rebel group solidifies its hold over the vital town of Uvira. Reports indicate that rebel fighters moved deeper into the town on Thursday, a day after their initial incursion, posing a significant blow to both the Congolese authorities and ongoing peace dialogue.

Located near Lake Tanganyika and close to the Burundi border, Uvira served as the temporary headquarters for South Kivu’s provincial administration since M23 captured Bukavu, the provincial capital, earlier this year. The loss of Uvira further diminishes the government's authority and empowers the M23 to expand its influence.

The developments have sparked anxiety among millions in the region. Gunfire erupted around Uvira’s periphery, intensifying the anxiety that residents already felt. Many spent previous days either hiding indoors or fleeing to the countryside. Despite the peril, some ventured out on Thursday morning in search of food, though the sense of uncertainty lingers.

A local educator, Godefroid Shengezi, conveyed the prevailing fear and chaos within Uvira. He lamented the government's assurances that Uvira would remain secure, noting that the town is now under rebel control. He also expressed distress over the whereabouts of his three children, whom he fears may have crossed into Burundi—home to thousands of Congolese refugees in recent days.

M23's associated group, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), has assured citizens that they are safe to resume their normal lives, yet many families continue to face separation, hunger, and uncertainty about their futures.

The United Nations has voiced serious concerns regarding the deepening crisis. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the offensive, warning that the escalating hostilities pose a threat to more nations and called for an immediate halt to the violence.

Uvira's takeover also puts Burundi in a precarious situation, given its proximity—only about 30 kilometers—from Bujumbura, Burundi’s largest city. Burundian troops have been engaged in Congo against rebel groups, and earlier this year, their numbers peaked at 12,000, although it’s suggested that this has since decreased.

M23 representatives contend that some Burundian forces have withdrawn from South Kivu, while others remain in strategic mountain positions. Additionally, M23 has made unverified claims accusing Burundian troops of using heavy artillery that endangered civilians. There has been no response from the Burundian government regarding these allegations.

A United Nations source familiar with the conflict noted that while M23 seeks the full withdrawal of Burundian troops from Congo, they are unlikely to directly attack Burundi due to its reliance on Uvira for fuel and essential supplies. Instead, M23 might aim to exert diplomatic pressure on Burundi.

The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly, with nearly 25,000 people fleeing into Burundi between December 5 and December 8—many arriving exhausted and in distress. Some crossed the river after border posts were closed due to security threats.

Significantly, M23’s advances occurred just a week after Congo's President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, reaffirming their support for a U.S.-led peace initiative. The Congolese government cautions that these rebel gains jeopardize the peace process and have urged the international community to respond swiftly, accusing Rwanda of complicity—an assertion Rwanda denies.

Meanwhile, M23 is not part of the ongoing U.S.-led negotiations but has been pursuing separate talks with Congo, mediated by Qatar, raising doubts about the feasibility of a peaceful resolution without the rebels' involvement.

Experts indicate that Uvira's fall indicates the bleak prospects for a long-term resolution. Jervin Naidoo from Oxford Economics emphasized that the current peace plan does not address the fundamental reasons for the conflict, warning that excluding M23 from negotiations will render any agreement ineffective.

As the violence spreads and more individuals are displaced, eastern Congo finds itself ensnared in a cycle of fear, shifts in power, and political uncertainty. The fall of Uvira is more than a local setback; it signals growing instability that could engulf the entire region.

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