Post by : Badri Ariffin

Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis has set ambitious targets for the coming decade, forecasting annual sales growth of 5% to 6% on a currency-adjusted basis through 2030. The company’s outlook is buoyed by stronger-than-expected performance of its cancer therapies, Kisqali and Scemblix, which are projected to generate peak sales far exceeding earlier estimates.

Cancer Drugs Driving the Surge

Novartis now expects Kisqali, its breast cancer treatment, to reach peak sales of at least $10 billion, up from a prior $8 billion estimate. Similarly, the leukemia drug Scemblix is forecasted to achieve at least $4 billion in peak sales, up from $3 billion. Combined, these two drugs generated $4.4 billion in sales during the first nine months of 2025, underscoring their growing contribution to Novartis’ portfolio. Analysts suggest there remains significant room to further revise these projections upward.

Beyond these, Novartis identifies eight of its most promising approved drugs with peak-sales potential ranging between $3 billion and $10 billion, signaling a strong mid- to long-term revenue pipeline.

Strategic Spending and Acquisitions

To safeguard growth amid impending patent expirations of key products such as Entresto (heart treatment) and Xolair (asthma therapy), Novartis has invested $30 billion this year in acquisitions and licensing deals. A notable move includes the $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences, expected to enhance the company’s pipeline with muscle-disorder treatment candidates and lift projected annual sales growth to 6% for 2024–2029.

Margins and Operational Targets

Novartis aims for a core operating income margin of at least 40% by 2029, factoring in a modest 1–2 percentage point drag from the Avidity deal, scheduled to close in the first half of 2026. For context, the company posted a 41.2% margin in the first nine months of 2025. While earnings in the third quarter roughly met expectations, margins underperformed, and growth in newer drugs did not fully offset concerns over plateauing sales of older products.

Outlook and Future Prospects

The success of upcoming experimental therapies, including the recently approved skin disease drug Rhapsido, will be crucial for Novartis to sustain its growth trajectory beyond 2030. Meanwhile, Kisqali’s U.S. pricing strategy under the Inflation Reduction Act in 2027 is expected to have a limited first-year impact, according to company projections.

With a strong pipeline, strategic acquisitions, and rising star therapies, Novartis is positioning itself to maintain steady growth even as the pharmaceutical landscape faces patent cliffs and pricing pressures.

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