Post by : Rameen Ariff

Russia is set to escalate its aerial offensive against Ukraine, with warnings from Kyiv about plans to produce up to 120,000 "lethal and cost-effective" glide bombs this year. A senior official from Ukrainian intelligence disclosed this figure, which has raised significant concerns regarding a weapon that has already devastated numerous frontline cities and is now pivotal to Russia's military strategy.

Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, stated that the estimate encompasses both newly manufactured glide bombs and refurbished Soviet-era munitions enhanced with wings or propulsion systems. While Reuters could not confirm the production specifics, this estimate points to a substantial increase in Moscow’s armament capabilities since the onset of its full-scale invasion in 2022.

Glide bombs are now amongst Russia's most formidable weapons. Unlike conventional missiles, these bombs don’t necessitate intricate guidance systems, enabling mass production at a lower cost. When dropped from fighter jets positioned far from Russian fronts, they unfold their wings and travel extensive distances, striking Ukrainian towns while keeping aircraft safe from defensive measures. Their substantial explosive power — often exceeding hundreds of kilograms — can obliterate buildings and devastate crucial infrastructure.

According to Ukrainian sources, Russian forces are launching between 200 to 250 glide bombs daily, a sharp rise from prior months. Skibitskyi termed the production scale as “immense” and underscored that Kyiv must respond swiftly to this mounting threat.

A significant worry is the introduction of a new long-range glide bomb capable of flying up to 200 km (125 miles) from its release point, surpassing the earlier range of 90 km. Moscow reportedly aims to manufacture around 500 of these extended-range bombs by year’s end. Even more concerning, Ukrainian intelligence believes that modifications may allow some variants to reach distances of up to 400 km, increasing the threat to cities without requiring missile systems.

Recent bombings in regions such as Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Odesa have illustrated the weapon's extensive range, indicating a disturbing trend of Russia targeting civilian areas well beyond active conflict zones.

Russian military officials have not commented on this intelligence assessment. Moscow has consistently refuted claims of attacking civilian targets, despite overwhelming evidence of casualties since the invasion commenced.

In addition to glide bombs, Skibitskyi also revealed details of Russia’s rapidly evolving drone capabilities. He predicted that approximately 70,000 long-range drones would be produced this year, inclusive of 30,000 Shahed drones, crucial to the recent assaults on Ukraine's energy facilities. “They are determined to wear us down,” he noted, cautioning that Russia is intensifying pressure on Ukraine as winter approaches to weaken Kyiv’s position in forthcoming peace negotiations.

The general expressed concern that if Russian troops capture the beleaguered city of Pokrovsk — the site of intense urban combat — Moscow would likely attempt to extend its reach into the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, a long-term strategic goal.

Furthermore, Skibitskyi addressed the increasing military collaboration between Russia and North Korea. He claimed that Pyongyang has delivered 6.5 million artillery rounds to Russia since the beginning of 2023, although shipments have begun to decline as North Korean reserves diminish. Many of these munitions have reportedly arrived in such deteriorated condition that they require refurbishment in Russian facilities. Additionally, North Korea is now developing and producing its own attack drones, applying insights gained from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

As Russia bolsters its stockpiles of bombs, drones, and strategic alliances, Ukrainian officials are warning that the upcoming months could witness heightened destruction, particularly impacting civilians far from the combat zones. Ukraine asserts the urgent need for enhanced air defense systems, broader international backing, and decisive actions to mitigate what could evolve into a perilous phase of the war.

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