Post by : Jyoti Gupta

Photo:Reuters

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited to attend a major military parade in Beijing this September, but it appears very unlikely that he will go. The parade will be held on September 3, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and celebrating China’s victory over Japan. Leaders from China and Russia are expected to be present, and the event is meant to show unity among nations that fought against fascism in the 1940s.

A historian from India has strongly encouraged Prime Minister Modi to join the celebration in Beijing. He believes that if India, China, and Russia come together at this event, they could open a path to solving some of their long-standing issues—especially the tense situation along the Himalayan border, which has led to deadly clashes in recent years. He even suggested that this moment could be used for a trilateral meeting (a meeting between three countries), which could help India and China settle their disputes with Russia’s support.

He also described the border dispute as a political problem, not a military one, and said it could be resolved if all sides genuinely tried. But despite this idea, most political experts believe Modi will not attend the parade. The main reason? Domestic political risks and diplomatic complications.

Domestic Politics Could Make Modi’s Attendance Risky

Inside India, there is strong opposition and criticism of Modi’s foreign policy towards China. After the two countries signed a border agreement in October, the opposition accused the Prime Minister of giving up too much to China. They said the deal weakened India's national interest and made too many concessions. Some critics even demanded a national-level debate in Parliament to openly discuss the growing security and economic concerns linked to China.

These concerns include China's control over rare earth minerals—materials that are essential for electronics and defense technology—and new restrictions on fertilizers, which could hurt Indian farmers. If Modi goes to Beijing for the parade, critics at home could accuse him of being “too friendly” with a country that is seen as a threat by many Indians.

According to international analysts, attending such an event would be seen as a strong symbolic move, almost like saying India now sees China as a close partner or ally. But right now, relations between the two countries have not improved enough for such a major gesture. Also, by going to a parade that celebrates China’s victory over Japan, India could end up offending Japan, which is one of India’s closest friends in Asia.

India, Japan, the United States, and Australia are all part of the Quad Alliance, a group that works together on security and strategy in the Indo-Pacific region. Showing support for China at Japan’s expense could damage that relationship and weaken India’s standing in the group.

Pakistan’s Presence Could Further Complicate Matters

There is also the possibility that top leaders from Pakistan will attend the Chinese parade. Since India and Pakistan have been long-time rivals with ongoing conflicts, Modi being at the same high-profile event as Pakistani leaders could create another round of controversy.
Even if there are no direct interactions between the two, the symbolism of Modi appearing at the same event as Pakistan’s leaders—especially on Chinese soil—could be politically dangerous at home. It might be seen as a sign of weakness or poor judgment, especially by India’s political opposition and national security community.

The SCO Summit: A More Likely Option for Modi’s Visit to China

While it seems unlikely that Modi will go to the parade, there is another event that could offer a more practical and politically safer chance for engagement: the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in late August. This meeting will be held in Tianjin, a city in northern China, and will include leaders from several Asian countries, including Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

If Modi attends this summit, it will be his sixth visit to China since becoming Prime Minister in 2014. No other Indian prime minister has visited China so many times. This would send a positive message to both the Chinese government and the international community, suggesting that India is open to improving ties while still protecting its national interests.

China’s ambassador to India has already said that Modi would be warmly welcomed if he came for the summit. However, even this visit is not guaranteed. Modi and his team must carefully weigh the benefits of diplomacy against the risk of domestic backlash, especially with national elections not too far away.

Signs of Improving India-China Relations

Over the past few months, there have been small but important signs that India and China are trying to rebuild their relationship. In July, India’s foreign minister visited China for the first time in five years. During the visit, the two countries agreed to restart direct flights, which had been suspended since the COVID-19 pandemic and a deadly border clash in 2020.

India has also started to issue tourist visas to Chinese nationals again, which had been frozen for four years. In another move toward cooperation, China recently allowed Indian pilgrims to visit religious sites in Tibet, a region sacred to Hindus and Buddhists alike.
These steps show that both sides are slowly opening up and trying to rebuild trust. But big challenges still remain.

New Frictions Over Pakistan and the Dalai Lama

Tensions flared again in May when Indian officials said that Chinese-made fighter jets were used by Pakistan during a brief clash with India’s air force. India accused China of supporting Pakistan by supplying weapons and technology. China denied this, saying that its cooperation with Pakistan does not target any third country.

There is also a growing dispute over the future of the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader who has lived in exile in India since 1959. A senior Indian minister recently said that only the Dalai Lama himself has the right to choose his successor. China quickly objected, saying that any decision about the Dalai Lama must follow Chinese law and tradition. When Modi later wished the Dalai Lama a happy birthday, China filed an official protest.

These issues show how deep-rooted and sensitive the disagreements between India and China still are. Even if both countries want peace, they are walking on a tightrope, trying to balance cooperation with confrontation.