Post by : Meena Ariff

The Vietnamese stock market began the first week of July with impressive growth. Investors were happy to see the VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange close at 1,386.97 points. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange ended at 232.51 points.

This week, the VN-Index rose by more than 1.1%, marking its third straight week of gains. The HNX-Index also increased by 2%, showing a healthy upward trend across the market.

Liquidity and Trading Value Rise

According to the Vietnam Construction Securities Corporation, average liquidity on the HoSE reached 948 million shares. This was 13.84% higher than the previous week, showing that more people were buying and selling shares. The total trading value for the week was VNĐ23.32 trillion (about 890.8 million US dollars). This was the highest trading value recorded in a month and was also 6.4% higher than the average of the past 20 weeks.

Strong Buying by Foreign Investors

One of the biggest highlights of the week was the strong buying from foreign investors. They bought more than VNĐ5.1 trillion worth of stocks, the highest amount seen in the last two years.

Some of the top companies that attracted foreign investment were SSI Securities Corporation, Mobile World Investment Corporation, and FPT Corporation. This shows that foreign investors preferred companies with strong business foundations and good future growth potential.

Impact of Vietnam-US Trade Agreement

The market’s strong performance was also supported by good news about the trade agreement between Vietnam and the United States. This agreement helped reduce fears about new tariffs on Vietnamese goods. Because of this, investors felt more confident, and it helped push the VN-Index closer to the important resistance level of 1,400 points.

Experts said that the two biggest highlights this week were the announcement of the trade deal and the trading session on July 3. On that day, the total trading value on HoSE was more than VNĐ30 trillion, a very high amount.

Advice for Investors

Experts suggested that this is a good time for investors to adjust their portfolios. They advised focusing on sectors that are less affected by international changes and on companies that focus on domestic consumption, as these are expected to grow well in the coming months.

Sector Performance

During the week, out of 21 industry sectors, 16 recorded positive growth. The best-performing sectors were:

• Shipping – increased by 4.6%
• Securities – increased by 3.94%
• Technology and Telecommunications – increased by 3.01%

However, some sectors saw their stock prices fall. These included:

• Food and Consumer Goods – down by 1.59%
• Textiles – down by 1.54%
• Real Estate – down by 1.23%

Stocks linked to export activities such as seafood, industrial zones, and textiles dropped sharply after news about tax policy updates.

Shift in Investor Focus

Experts noticed that short-term investors were moving their money away from sectors sensitive to trade issues and investing in safer sectors or those that had not yet seen major gains.

Warnings of Possible Market Correction

Despite the strong performance, some securities firms warned that the market could face short-term corrections soon. The VN-Index is now close to a resistance level of 1,398 to 1,418 points. When markets approach these levels after long rallies, many investors start selling their shares to take profits, leading to a possible drop in prices.

Technical analysts also said that both the VN-Index and VN30-Index are currently in an “overbought” state. This means that prices have risen too much and too quickly, and they are now close to their highest points recorded in 2021 and 2022.

Expert Opinions on Future Prospects

Đinh Quang Hinh, who is the head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy at VNDirect Securities Corporation, said that the trade agreement with the US was a very important step for Vietnam. It will help Vietnam keep its competitive edge in exports and make foreign investors more confident to invest in the country.

However, he also mentioned that the market’s focus will soon shift towards the second-quarter earnings results of companies. If companies report good profits, this could support the market to rise further.

Recommendations for Investors

His team recommended that investors take advantage of any ups and downs in the market to restructure their investments. They suggested focusing on sectors with promising profit forecasts, such as banking, securities, consumer goods, and retail. But they also warned investors not to buy stocks at high prices and to slowly sell their shares when the VN-Index approaches 1,400 points to lock in profits.

Global and Domestic Market Outlook

Overall, Vietnam’s economy continues to give investors confidence for the future. However, at the global level, financial markets are facing risks due to trade tensions and new US tariff policies. These international issues could affect markets around the world, including Vietnam, in the coming weeks.

This detailed outlook shows that Vietnam’s stock market is currently strong, with foreign investors bringing in new funds and with positive economic news giving confidence to local investors. However, experts advise caution as the market reaches higher levels where corrections may occur.